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Dangerous Level of Climate Change and Building the Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Development |
| 添加时间: 2011-4-18 9:36:13 来源: 作者: 点击数:8844 |
Lin Erda
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract: The key vulnerability and dangerous level of climate change are hot issues in current international climate change research. This paper briefly outlines the basic concept of dangerous climate change and its uncertainties to determine quantitatively the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Simulation results suggest that a 2.2-3.9℃warming in next 50-80 years with adaptation will not threaten wheat and maize production severely. To mitigate or avoid dangerous climate change, the strategy of adaptation is suggested for regional sustainable development in China.
Key words: climate change; sustainable development; adaptation; dangerous level
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