4	Evaluation and optimization	3/16/11	3/25/11
4.1	codes evaluation and optimization	3/16/11	3/17/11
4.1.1	Testing in the simulation environment using TEI@I software	3/21/11	3/23/11
4.1.2	Bug scanning and correction	3/23/11	3/24/11
4.2	Enhance the performance of the system	3/24/11	3/25/11
5	Completing the Report	3/26/11	5/06/11
5.1	Collecting the data and figures and analysis them	3/26/11	3/28/11
5.2	Revise and Complete the Project	3/29/11	4/22/11
5.3	Write Viva's PPT	4/23/11	5/06/11

Appendix

Part code of the main program.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% TEI@I method

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

clc;

clear;

close all;

warning off;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% simulation parameter

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Crude_Oil_type = 'RBRTE';%'RWTC'--- WTI - Cushing, Oklahoma RBRTE--- Brent - Europe

Period = 'Monthly';% 'Weekly','Monthly','Annual'

N_a = 5;% Order of the denominator (# of poles) in arima model

N_c = 3;% Order of the numerator (# of ceros) in arima model

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% parameter parser

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

switch Period;

case 'Weekly';

period_name = 'w';

case 'Monthly';

period_name = 'm';

case 'Annual';

period_name = 'a';

otherwise,

error('error input in Period!');

end;

Plot_original_data = 'On';

Plot_error = 'On';

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% text mining module

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

filename = strcat(Crude_Oil_type,period_name);

filename = strcat(filename,'.xls');

filename = strcat('.\data\',filename);

[data_cell,entry,raw_data] = xlsread(filename,'Data 1');

sample_len = length(data_cell);% the length of sample

read_offset = 4;% read offset

time_seq = raw_data(read_offset:end-1,1);% the date for sample

time_index = 1:sample_len;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% Econometrical module(ARIMA)

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Enc_data_cell = iddata(data_cell);

Model_Pa = armax(Enc_data_cell,'na',N_a,'nc',N_c);

Pred_data_cell = predict(Enc_data_cell,Model_Pa,1);%Ô¤²â

switch Plot_original_data;

case 'On';

figure(1);

plot(time_index,data_cell,'ro-');hold on;

plot(Pred_data_cell);

xlabel('Time');

ylabel('Crude Oil price');

legend('Original','ARIMA prediction');

grid on;

otherwise;

end;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% ANN model

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

TargetIn = [1:12]+length(time_index);

ARMA_prediction_structure = get(Pred_data_cell);

ARMA_prediction = ARMA_prediction_structure.OutputData{1};

[TestNNOut,ErrHistory] = ANN_RBF(time_index,ARMA_prediction,TargetIn);

% »æÖÆÑ§Ï°Îó²îÇúÏß

switch Plot_error;

case 'On';

figure(2);

grid on;

[xx,Num] = size(ErrHistory);

plot(1:Num,ErrHistory,'k-');

otherwise,

end;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%% data plot

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

figure(3);

New_index = [time_index TargetIn];

New_crude_oil_price = [data_cell' TestNNOut];

plot(New_index,New_crude_oil_price,'r-*');

Risk Assessment in the future

To examine what could go wrong in a specific context in the project and to weigh up whether I have taken enough precautions to prevent failure, this Risk Assessment is conducted by firstly identifying potential risks in this project, secondly assess those risks, finally find out some strategies and plans to manage them.

Risk assessment and management

The tables below are used to complete the risk assessment for each identified risk event.

“Likelihood rating” and “Description of impact” can be used to prioritize risk events for continuous monitoring throughout the project, i.e., “Impact rating”.

Each risk event can have multiple Mitigation Strategies and Contingency Plans, i.e., the “Preventative actions”.

Contingency Plans: Description of planned or possible actions to address the risk event.

Description of Risk	Description of Impact	Likelihood Rating	Impact Rating	Preventative actions
Description of Risk	Description of Impact	Likelihood Rating	Impact Rating	Mitigation Strategy	Contingency Plan
Failure to access required information	Miss many useful knowledge and information	Medium,	Medium	Retention	Search for alternatives knowledge and information
Non-availability of components	Some simulations cannot be conducted	Low	Medium/High	Deflection	Ask for help from the school equipment administration office
Hardware / equipment not available	Some simulations and implementation cannot be conducted	Medium	High	Deflection	Ask for help from supervisor or the school equipment administration office
Software not suitable for purpose	Some simulations and implementation cannot be conducted	Low/Medium	Medium/High	Control	Find the more suitable ones
Failure to build the demonstrator	Cannot finish the simulation and the demonstration task in the project	Low/Medium	High	Control	Demonstrate with the current existing solutions, find out the reasons for failure
Failure to build the system	Cannot finish the implementation task in the project	Low/Medium	High	Control	Try to implement some simple functions to the system
Failure to implement some required functions	Some operations of the system cannot function	Medium/High	Medium	Control	Prioritize the more important ones, then try to implement them first
Size underestimate	System larger than expected	Medium/High	Medium/High	Control	Optimize the algorithms and the code
Slow response time	The response time is slower than the expected one	Medium/High	Medium	Control	Find better algorithms and optimize the algorithms and the code
Low accuracy	Affect the functionality of the system	Medium/High	High	Control	Find better algorithms and optimize the algorithms and the code
Failure to debug software	Some operations of the system cannot function properly	Medium	Medium	Deflection /Control	Ask for help from supervisor or search for some debug solution
Testing inadequate	Cannot get adequate testing results	Medium/High	Medium	Control	Use different testing methods and compare the testing results
Requirements change	Should change current work to adopt to new requirements	Medium	Medium	Control	Do the project in the process such as spiral, which can better deal with requirements change
Poor time management	Cannot finish the project on time	Medium/High	High	Control	Double check timetable / read e-mail regularly, do the project according to the plan