主要任务及目标 Main task and target：
The main tasks include:
1) learn the operation principle of TEI@I methodology
2) learn the principle of crude oil price forecasting
3) learn the utilization of TEI@I methodology
4) design a TEI@I methodology software to forecast crude oil price
5) implement TEI@I methodology by programming
The main target about this project is to design and implement a TEI@I methodology software which can forecast crude oil price. The methodology has successfully applied to solve a lot of complex forecasting problems. My software supports some governmental departments for their policy making.
主要内容 Project description：
• Details about the specific problem being addressed
The fact of complex systems:
Crude oil price is determined by its supply and demand, and is strongly influenced by many irregular future events like the weather, stock levels, GDP growth, political aspects and even people’s expectation.
The above facts lead to a strongly fluctuating and interacting market whose fundamental mechanism governing the complex dynamics is not well understood. Furthermore, because sharp oil price movements are likely to disturb aggregate economic activity, researchers have shown considerable interests for volatile oil prices.
Therefore, forecasting oil prices is an important and very hard topic due to its intrinsic difficulty and practical applications.
How the TEI@I methodology works:
TEI@I methodology is a combination of traditional statistical techniques and artificial intelligence technology, the new methodology is based on the format of "Textmining + Econometrics + Intelligence + Integration". In complex systems analysis and research, TEI @ I methodology reflects the thinking of "from decomposition to integration".
Other Applications:
Forecasting of GDP’s Growth
Forecasting of CPI
Forecasting of Housing Prices of 30 Large Cities in China
Forecasting of Prices of Some Commodities
Forecasting of FDI
Forecasting of Demand in Industries, such as Logistics, Transportation, etc.
• An initial analysis of user requirements, and how data will be collected
It is obviously that we cannot capture the requirement by observation and questionnaires, so I complete the requirements analysis by background reading and interviewing.
In the first place, we shall decompose the complex systems. We can make use of econometric models of complex systems to present the main trends, then utilize artificial intelligence technology to analyze complex systems of nonlinear and uncertainties. And secondly we analyze the emergence and instability of complex systems using text mining technologies. Finally, based on the idea of integration, we congregate the various parts of the above decomposed complex systems together to form the analysis and modeling of overall complex system, so that we could achieve the purpose of analyzing complex systems.
• The algorithms, methodologies and other techniques to be employed
TEI@I combines new artificial intelligence technology with the traditional econometrical models. In complex systems research, TEI@I reflects the idea of “disintegrating, and then integrating”. First, it will disintegrate the complex system, analyzing system trends with econometrical models, analyzing nonlinear behavior and uncertainty with an artificial intelligence technique.
Next, it will use a textmining technique to analyze irregularity and infrequency. Finally, it will integrate the above components, and form a model for the whole complex system.
• An initial specification of how users will interact with the system (implementation)
The interface will be simple but have a strong, consistent visual hierarchy. The content will be organized very predictably.
根据现有程序进行分析，程序TEI@I，是用MATLAB编的，可以正常运行。主要分为人工智能ANN模块，数据导入模块text mining，经济计量模块ARMIA。
JP-Project-report-template2011-finall是论文模板，JP Project report-062977.doc是以往同学的论文，请依照以上格式进行编写。主要是对于程序整个设计过程的分析。
以下为模板目录的中文翻译。有写作上的困难请参考JP Project report-062977.doc的写作风格。
Disclaimer VI
摘要... VII
简介ABSTRACT. VIII
TABLE OF CONTENT.. IX
介绍CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.. 1
背景CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND.. 4
2.1 Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. 4
2.1.1 The history of Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. 4
2.1.2 The main characteristics of Mobile Ad Hoc Networks and Applications. 4
2.1.3 The designing challenges in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. 7
2.2 Routing Protocols in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. 7
2.2.1 Introduction. 7
2.2.2 Some typical routing protocols. 11
2.2.3 Routing Protocol performance indicators. 14
2.3 Token Bucket Algorithm.. 16
2.3.1 Introduction of the Algorithm.. 16
2.3.2 Token Bucket VS. Leaky Bucket 17
2.4 OPNET Simulation Software. 18
2.4.1 Brief introduction for Network Simulation. 18
2.4.2 Brief introduction for OPNET Modeller Simulation Platform.. 19
设计和装配CHAPTER 3: DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION.. 21
3.1 Construct the Ad Hoc Network model using OPNET. 22
3.1.1 Create a basic model 22
3.1.2 Compile and Run Discrete Event Simulation. 24
3.2 Modify the DSR protocol to get a multi-path routing. 26
3.3 Get the information of delay for each path. 28
3.4 Token Bucket algorithm to balance the load. 28
优化Chapter 4: Optimization. 34
结果和讨论Chapter 5: Results and Discussion. 37
Memory usage:. 37
Packet delivery: 39
End-to-End delay: 41
总结和未来展望Chapter 6: Conclusion and Further Work. 44
Achievements: 44
Further work: 45
引用References. 46
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT. 47
Appendix. 48
Ethical considerations assessment 48
风险评测Risk Assessment 49
Environmental Impact Assessment 51
Project Proposal Form.. 52
Mid Term Check Form.. 54
Weekly Report 58
Weekly Report 60
Process model of TEI@I methodology
• Programming language / database/ software package and hardware to be used
In this project I will program the token TEI@I methodology using JAVA, C, HTML language and implement and analysis the results in the WIN+INTEL environment. Network simulation can provide reliable quantitative foundation for network plan and design and test the real programmer. In order to get a persuasive and comprehensive result, IE can analyze complex network performance correctly.
The hardware we need is only a PC.
主要参考文献 Main references：
[1] Shuoyang Wang “TEI@I Methodology and its Applications in China”
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[2] Lean Yu,ShouyangWang, K.K.Lai (2005). “TEI@I Methodology and its Applications in Crude Oil Price Forecasting”
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
[3] Method for Housing Price Forecasting based on TEI@I Methodology
YAN Yan, XU Wei ,BU Hui ,SONG Yang, ZHANG Wen, YUAN Hong, WANG Shou-yang
[4] Huntington, H.G.: Oil price forecasting in the 1980s: what went wrong? The Energy Journal, 15(2), (1994) 1-22.
[5] Stevens, P.: The determination of oil prices 1945-1995. Energy Policy, 23(10), (1995) 861-870
Abramson, B., Finizza, A.: Probabilistic forecasts from probabilistic models: a case study in the oil market. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(1), (1995) 63-72
[6] Morana, C.: A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting. Energy Economics, 23(3), (2001) 325-338
[7]Watkins, G.C., Plourde, A.: How volatile are crude oil prices? OPEC Review, 18(4), (1994) 220-245.
进度安排 Work-plan：
|
WBS |
Tasks |
Start |
End |
Duration |
Working Days |
Days Complete |
Days Remaining |
|
1 |
Preparation |
12/02/10 |
12/10/10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
|
1.1 |
Background Research (a list of references) |
12/02/10 |
12/04/10 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
|
1.1.1 |
Algorithm searching |
12/03/10 |
12/04/10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
1.1.2 |
Study the TEI@I |
12/03/10 |
12/04/10 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
1.2 |
Complete the Proposal |
12/03/10 |
12/05/10 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
|
1.3 |
Specification Form |
12/05/10 |
12/10/10 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
|
1.3.1 |
Complete the specification in terms of the proposal |
12/05/10 |
12/10/10 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
|
1.3.2 |
Modify the Specification and draw a Gantt chart |
12/06/10 |
12/08/10 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
Design |
12/15/10 |
12/29/10 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
|
2.1 |
Know well TEI@I environment |
12/15/10 |
12/15/10 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
2.2 |
System specification |
12/16/10 |
12/02/10 |
17 |
12 |
0 |
17 |
|
2.2.1 |
Searching algorithm |
12/16/10 |
12/17/10 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
<, P style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" class=MsoNormal align=center>2 |
|
2.2.2 |
Algorithm selection |
12/17/10 |
12/18/10 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
2.2.3 |
Data collection |
12/19/10 |
12/21/10 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
2.3 |
System design ( Including feature database design ) |
12/22/10 |
12/27/10 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
|
3 |
Implementation |
1/30/11 |
2/15/11 |
18 |
18 |
0 |
18 |
|
3.1 |
Draw a flow chart in term of the algorithm |
1/30/11 |
1/31/11 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
3.2 |
Implement the algorithm by programming |
2/01/11 |
2/15/11 |
16 |
16 |
0 |
16 |
|
|
Prepare the mid-term check form and PPT |
2/17/11 |
2/19/11 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
|
Mid-term check |
2/20/11 |
2/25/11 |
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
Evaluation and optimization |
3/16/11 |
3/25/11 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
|
4.1 |
codes evaluation and optimization |
3/16/11 |
3/17/11 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
4.1.1 |
Testing in the simulation environment using TEI@I software |
3/21/11 |
3/23/11 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
4.1.2 |
Bug scanning and correction |
3/23/11 |
3/24/11 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
4.2 |
Enhance the performance of the system |
3/24/11 |
3/25/11 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
5 |
Completing the Report |
3/26/11 |
5/06/11 |
40 |
40 |
0 |
40 |
|
5.1 |
Collecting the data and figures and analysis them |
3/26/11 |
3/28/11 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
5.2 |
Revise and Complete the Project |
3/29/11 |
4/22/11 |
25 |
25 |
0 |
25 |
|
5.3 |
Write Viva's PPT |
4/23/11 |
5/06/11 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
